WASHINGTON — After a brief climb into positive territory in August, U.S. rail traffic once again declined in September, the sixth time in seven months volume has been below 2021 levels.
The September figures saw overall traffic drop 3.1%, or 61,678 carloads and intermodal units, compared to September 2021. Carload traffic was down 1.1% while container and trailer volume declined 4.8%.
August traffic had seen a modest overall increase of 0.4% [see “U.S. rail traffic up slightly …,” Trains News Wire, Sept. 8, 2022]
“During September, intermodal slowed as consumers continued to switch consumption more toward services and away from goods,” Association of American Railroads Senior Vice President John T. Gray said in a press release. “However, two underlying factors have helped magnify this trend for railroads. The first is overbuying by many retailers in late 2020 and during 2021 that is now being reflected in substantial inventories of unsold goods that weakens replacement demand. Meanwhile, a slackening of internet buying from its pandemic peak has softened trailer movements of packaged goods by rail.”
Year-to-date traffic, through nine months, is down 2.7% overall compared to 2021. That includes a 0.1% increase in carload traffic and a 5.1% decline in intermodal traffic.
Weekly traffic also down
The weekly U.S. rail traffic figures also continued to decline, although checking the trend that had seen an increasing rate of decline over the previous three weeks. Overall traffic was 495,858 carloads and intermodal units, down 3.9% for the week ending Oct. 1, compared to the same week in 2021. The previous three weeks had seen declines of 0.9%, 2.9%, and 4.4%.
Included in that overall figure were 234,420 carloads, down 3.1%, and 261,448 intermodal units, down 4.6%.
North American totals for the week, for 12 reporting U.S., Canadian, and Mexican railroads, include 337,140 carloads, down 0.8%, and 350,834 intermodal units, down 1.3%, for an overall total of 687,975 carloads and intermodal units, down 1.1%. Year-to-date North American totals are down 2.3% compared to the first 39 weeks of 2021.
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U.S. rail traffic dips in the month of September, a precursor signal for an upcoming recession?