WASHINGTON — For the second straight week, U.S. rail traffic showed its biggest decline of the young year, with overall volume down 6.5% compared to the same week in 2022.
That topped the 6.2% decline of the week ending Feb. 11 [see “Sluggish intermodal traffic drags US rail volume lower,” Trains News Wire, Feb. 16, 2023]. All seven weeks of 2023 have seen lower traffic volume than the corresponding week in 2022.
Statistics from the Association of American Railroads for the week ending Feb. 18 shows 466,932 carloads and intermodal units. That breaks down as 229,227 carloads, down 3.9% over the corresponding week in 2022, and 237,705 containers and trailers, down 8.8%.
Year-to-date totals, through seven weeks of 2023, finds carload traffic up 0.3% and intermodal traffic down 7.8% for a total decline of 4.0% compared to a year ago. Total traffic is averaging 462,016 carloads and intermodal units per week.
North American totals, for 12 U.S., Canadian, and Mexican railroads, show 335,772 carloads for the week, up 0.3% over the same week in 2022, and 313,084 intermodal units, down 8.3%. The total of 648,856 carloads and intermodal units represents a 4.0% decline. Year-to-date totals for North America show a 2.2% decline compared to 2022.
The poor service that railroads have offered since the implementation of PSR is paying off in lost customers.
Also how much of the decline is due to embargos and railroads not having enough crews to run enough trains.
Quite possibly an early “warning sign”, a precursor if you will, of an imminent recession in 2023?
Is this due to the growth in 2022 due to the then emergence from covid vs a decline in 2023 due to a slow down of the economy?